project on environmental scarcities, state capacity, & civil violence

by Ning Datong

Agricultural Land in China

Current Availability and Utilization of Farmland

1) China’s estimated current population is 1.2 billion, 22 percent of the global population.

2) According to official statistics, 96 million hectares (Mha) of land is cultivated in China, 10 percent of the total national territory.¹

3) China’s population is increasing by 12 to 15 million people per year, whereas cultivated land is declining by 400,000 to 500,000 per year.²

4) Population growth is most rapid in the economically underdeveloped arid and semi-arid regions. These regions lack sufficient communication networks and suffer from critical ecological imbalances and natural disasters. Included among these regions are the provinces of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Xinjiang.

5) According to Qu Geping et al., China has only 35 Mha of non-agricultural land suitable for agricultural production, of which only 14 Mha are suitable for crop cultivation.³

Estimate of the Quantity and Quality of Cultivated Land for the Year 2000

Rapid population and economic growth contribute to environmental degradation and the loss of cultivable land. I make the following estimates regarding land use leading up to the year 2000: 1) 100 Mha will be earmarked for agricultural purposes; 2) 1 Mha will be used in water conservancy projects; 3) 8 to 9.3 Mha of farmland will be converted to forests and pasturage; and, 4) 4 Mha will be utilized for shelter belts. Based on these estimates, agricultural land will likely decline by 20 Mha by the year 2000. If we add the 6 to 8 Mha of land that will likely be reclaimed by the year 2000 to this figure, total agricultural land will most likely decrease by approximately 13 Mha.⁴

Impact of Land Degradation on Economic Output

Soil Erosion

In the past 40 years, land in China affected by soil erosion has increased from 1.16 million km² to 1.53 million km². This 32 percent increase affects over 1,000 counties and accounts for one sixth of China’s total territory. (Table l illustrates soil erosion patterns in China for 1992).⁵ Regions suffering the most serious soil erosion include the loess plateau, the Southern Hilly Regions, the Northern Sparse Vegetation Regions, and the Northeastern Black Earth Regions. In the Loess Plateau region alone, 430,000 km² of land have undergone soil erosion, 65 percent of which is considered “grave.” As a result of this soil erosion, the silt load in the Yellow River at Sanmen Gorge has increased to approximately 1.6 billion tons per year (Table 2).⁶

Table 1: Soil Erosion in China (1992)⁷

Region	Area (thousand ha)	Percent
North China	35,786	22
Northeast China	14,221	8.8
East China	16,930	10.4
Central China	17,802	1
South China	3,034	1.9
Southwest China	37,192	22.9
Northwest China	37,337	23
Total	162,302	100

Table 2: Sedimentation of China’s Major Rivers⁸

River	Length (km)	Area of River Basin (km2)	Area of Soil Erosion (km2)	Annual Silt Discharge (million tons)	Annual Erosion Rate (tons/km2)
Yellow River	5,464	752,443	430,000	1,600	3,700
Yangzi River	6,300	1,808,500	360,000	514	512
Hui River	1,000	237,447	67,100	12.6	104
Hai River	1,090	319,029	123,000	175	—
Pearl River	2,210	578,141	33,000	86.2	190
Liao River	1,390	345,207	75,000	—	—
Songhua River	1,956	545,594	44,000	—	—
Total	—	4,586,594	1,133,100	—	—

Nationwide, 5 billion tons of soil are eroded each year,⁹ resulting in a loss of organic matter equal to twice the national production of chemical fertilizers.¹⁰ According to statistical data, of the 217 counties presently considered impoverished by Chinese standards, 87 percent are situated in regions suffering from soil erosion.¹¹ If not strictly controlled, soil erosion will probably expand to 1.7 to 1.8 million km² by the year 2000.¹² Such an expansion would constitute a 13 to 20 percent expansion of the area affected by erosion and a 20 to 25 percent increase in the quantity of eroded soil.

Soil erosion in China has had multiple impacts. For example, since the 1950s, 86,000 reservoirs have been built in China, with a cumulative storage capacity of over 400 billion m³. However, increased soil erosion has caused annual sedimentation levels to rise to as much as 10 million m³, reducing storage capacity by approximately 10 percent.¹³ Sedimentation resulting from soil erosion also adversely affects hydroelectric output, availability of irrigation water, flood control potential, and the availability of navigable waterways (down from 172,000 km in the 1960s, to 108,000 km today). Furthermore, increased sedimentation along the lower reaches of the Yellow River has caused an annual 10 cm rise of the river bed, with the result that the Yellow River is in many places “suspended” above the plains over which it flows, precariously controlled by dikes constructed along its course.¹⁴

Secondary Salinization and Secondary Gleization

Secondary salinization affects 7.3 Mha of cropland, mostly in the southeastern semi-humid monsoonal regions. It results mainly from inappropriate irrigation and farming practices. In the northwestern provinces, specifically Xinjiang and Gansu, 30% – 40 percent of total cultivated area is affected by secondary salinization. In Inner Mongolia, along the Yellow River, 50 percent of farmland has been affected by moderate or serious salinization.¹⁵ By the year 2000, projections are that salinization will affect approximately 8 Mha of cropland, and an additional 17 Mha will be faced with the threat of salinization.¹⁶

Investigations have revealed that 4.2 Mha of paddy fields suffer from gleization¹⁷ in the southern provinces. In Jiangxi province alone, 420,000 ha of paddy fields have undergone gleization, accounting for 20 percent of all rice paddies in the province. In general, rice production declines by approximately 1,500 to 2,250 kg/ha as a result of gleization.¹⁸ As the area affected by gleization expands, efforts to enhance rice paddy output are seriously circumscribed.

Urbanization, Communication Networks and Water Conservancy Projects

From 1957 through the mid – 1980s, cultivated land in China declined by an average of 538,000 ha per year. The main contributors to this decline were rural and urban construction projects, cropland conversion into forest plantations and pastures, and natural disasters. At present, construction in villages and towns causes an annual loss of approximately 500,000 ha of farmland. If we assume that average crop yields are 5.25 tons per ha, the annual loss of potential food output resulting from lost farmland is approximately 2.63 million tons,¹⁹equivalent to the food requirements of about 13 million people.

Construction projects are a major contributor to the decline of farmland in villages and towns throughout China. In 1985 approximately 100,000 ha of farmland was lost to housing projects, while in 1986 the figure was 85,000 ha.²⁰ Furthermore, the impact is not limited only to rural areas, construction has caused urban farmland loss as well. Loss of urban farmland is typified by the case of Beijing. Construction in the Beijing area caused a decline in total farmland from 531,000 ha in the early 1950s, to 419,000 ha by the late 1980s. With no end of the construction boom in sight, losses of farmland throughout China are expected to continue apace.

Estimates of countrywide farmland loss in the early 1990s are as follows: 226,700 ha lost in 1991; 229,000 ha lost in 1992; and 322,600 ha lost in 1993. It is also estimated that various forms of land occupancy will cause an additional 67 Mha decline of farmland by the end of the century.

The Impact of Extensive and Intensive Cultivation

Soil quality in China is approximately 27 percent high fertility, 38 percent moderate fertility, and 35 percent low fertility.²¹ Fertility levels are under constant downward pressure as a result of insufficient inputs coupled with persistent efforts to achieve high yields. Areas most affected by deteriorating fertility are those already considered impoverished.

Methodology

Estimating Economic Loss

Economic Loss Resulting from Farmland Conversion

Method of calculation: Market value method.

Major coefficient:

area that cannot be tilled due to changed land use.

Economic Loss Resulting from Soil Erosion

Method of calculation: Market value replacement.

Major coefficients:

a) silt load resulting from soil erosion.

b) nutrient content of eroded soil (while nutrient content differs from region to region, we base our estimates on figures derived from an investigation in Guizhou Province. According to this investigation, one ton of tilled soil contains approximately 20 kg of organic materials, 2 kg of nitrogen, 1 kg of phosphorous, and 4 kg of potassium).

Economic Loss Resulting from Deteriorating Reservoir Function

Method of calculation: Shadow engineering method.

Major coefficients:

a) volume of lost storage capacity.

b) engineering investment required per m³ of storage capacity (this figure differs from region to region).

Economic Loss Resulting from Deterioration of Waterways

Method of calculation: Shadow engineering method.

Major coefficient:

a) cost per ton for silt removal.

Economic Loss Resulting from Salinization and Gleization

Method of calculation: Market value method.

Major coefficients:

a) area of farmland damaged per year.

b) average yields per ha of farmland.

Monetary Estimate of Economic Loss

Farmland Conversion

According to official documents, total farmland in China peaked at 111 Mha in 1957, and has since steadily declined (Editor’s note: This figure for total farmland is now considered by some experts to be an underestimate. Please refer to endnote #1). Between 1958 and 1986 cropland nationwide declined by 40.7 Mha, an average of 1.41 Mha per year. Reclamation efforts have somewhat mitigated this tendency, resulting in a net annual decrease of 0.538 Mha. Promulgation of the new “Land Management Law” temporarily reversed the decline of farmland resulting in an actual increase of 101,000 ha in 1990. However, the decline resumed after 1991 (see Table 3 for 1992 figures).²²

Between 1990 and 1993, about a quarter of all Chinese farmland was categorized as highly fertile. By including calculations of rainfall, we arrive at average yields of 5,250 kg/ha for highly fertile farmland. Farmland loss is estimated at 500,000 ha annually and grain prices at 0.32 yuan/kg. By using the Market Value Method we can calculate annual monetary losses as a result of lost highly fertile farmland as follows: 0.32 (yuan/kg) x 500,000 (ha) x 0.25 x 5250 (kg/ha) = 210 (million yuan). Yields for the remaining 75 percent of farmland are estimated at 1,125 kg/ha per annum. Therefore, monetary losses resulting from lost yields can be expressed as follows: 500,000 (ha) x 0.75 x 1,125 (kg/ha) x 0.32 (yuan/kg) = 135 (million yuan).

Since lost farmland has a long-term impact on farm yields, value measurements must account for long-term changes in value. Therefore, we include 41.7 yuan as the present value of long term cumulative loss per 1 yuan, with an annual estimated discount rate of 2.4 percent.²³ As a result, our calculations are as follows: (.135 + .210) x 41.7 = 14.4 billion yuan,

Table 3: Farmland Area in Different Districts of China (1,000 ha)²⁴

Region	Farmland Area 1991	Farmland Area 1992	Increase or Decrease of Area	Percent
North China	16,085	16,144	59	0.4
East China	16,250	16,288	38	0.2
Central China	13,689	13,605	-84	-0.6
South China	5,570	5,490	-80	-1.5
Southwest China	11,215	11,186	-29	-0.26
Northwest China	11,493	11,484	-9	-0.08
Total	95,654	95,425	-229	-0.24

Soil Erosion

Soil lost to erosion is approximately equivalent in value to 54 million tons of chemical fertilizer.²⁵ If we estimate the average price of chemical fertilizer to be 300 yuan/ton, the monetary loss resulting from soil erosion is approximately 16.2 billion yuan.

Deterioration of Reservoir Function

As noted, China has constructed 86,000 reservoirs of various sizes with a cumulative storage capacity of over 400 billion m³ since the 1950s.²⁶ To date, siltation has reduced their cumulative storage capacity by approximately 40 billion m³, an annual loss of 1 billion m³. The average investment in construction per m³ of reservoir storage capacity is 0.6 yuan.²⁷Relying on these figures, the annual monetary loss resulting from declining reservoir capacity due to siltation, can be assessed at approximately 0.6 billion yuan. Due to the long-term impact of lost reservoir capacity, its value should be estimated as follows: 0.6 (billion yuan) x 41.7 = 25 (billion yuan).

Between the 1950s and the 1980s reservoirs along the Yangzi River basin alone lost a cumulative 1.2 billion m³ of storage capacity.²⁸ This figure translates into an average annual loss of 40 million m³, equivalent to approximately 24 million yuan.

Siltation of Waterways

Chinese rivers receive silt deposits of approximately 1.23 billion tons annually. We assume that dredging costs throughout China are similar to the 2.6 yuan/ton cost of dredging along the lower reaches of the Yellow River.²⁹ Based on these figures, the annual cost of declining water transportation capacity as a result of siltation is 3.2 billion yuan nationwide. Siltation of the Yellow River is one example of the economic costs resulting from siltation. One point six billion tons of silt pass through the Sanmenxia Gorge of the Yellow River each year. Of this amount, 400 million tons are deposited along the lower reaches, raising the river bed by 10 cm each year. The economic cost of dredging this quantity of silt is 400 (million tons) x 2.6 (yuan/ton) = 1.04 (billion yuan).

Dongting Lake represents a further example. Dongting Lake receives 120 million m³ of silt per year. Dredging this quantity of silt would cost approximately 312 million yuan. Annual silt deposition in Poyang Lake is 9.7 million tons, requiring an annual 25 million yuan investment for dredging.

Salinization of Soil

To date, the yearly increment of farmland affected by salinization is about 180,000 ha. In general, slight salinization results in a 25 percent drop in productivity, medium salinization results in a 50 percent drop in productivity, and serious salinization results in a 75 percent reduction in productivity.³⁰ If we assume that the average drop in productivity is 3,000 kg/ha, and the market price for grain is 1 yuan/kg, the annual monetary cost of farmland lost to soil salinization would be 540 million yuan.³¹ This can be represented in the following equation: 3,000 (kg/ha) x 180,000 (ha) x 1 (yuan/kg) = 540 (million yuan).

Exemplifying the situation is Inner Mongolia, where land affected by salinization along the Yellow River increased by 10,000 ha per year between the 1960s and 1980s. The annual monetary cost of this salinization can be estimated as 3,000 (kg/ha) x 10,000 (ha) x 1 (yuan/kg) = 30 (million yuan).³²

Conclusion

Preliminary estimates suggest that annual economic losses resulting from the deterioration of farmland in China may reach 59.3 billion yuan (Table 4). This figure can be divided as follows: a) lost farmland: 24.3 percent; b) erosion: 27.3 percent; c) decreased reservoir capacity: 42.2 percent.

Table 4: Estimate of Economic Losses Resulting from Farmland Deterioration (yuan/ha)

Item	Method	Major Coefficient	Monetary loss (billion yuan)	Percent of Total
Lost Farmland	Market value	Area of farmland abandoned	14.4	24.3
Eroded Soil	Replacement market value	– Soil runoff – Nutrient content of eroded soil	16.2	27.3
Lost Reservoir Function	Shadow engineering	Decrease of storage capacity	25.0	42.2
Damaged Shipping	Shadow engineering	Volume lost to siltation	3.2	5.4
Salinized Soil	Market value	– Increment of salinized cropland – Decrease in amount of grain output per unit of cropland	0.54	0.8
Total			59.3	100

Notes for Section

1. Wang Xianjin, “The Severe Situation of Land Development in China,” China Land (No. 8, 1994). See also, Division of Rural Social Economic Statistics, State Statistical Bureau (eds.), Yearbook of China Rural Statistics (China Statistical Press, 1993). This official figure is now thought to be an underestimate. Cai Yunlong estimates 133 million ha of arable land. R.L. Edmonds, Patterns of China’s Lost Harmony (New York: Routledge, 1994), p. 6.
2. Qu Geping, et al., China’s Population and Environment (China Environmental Sciences Press, 1992).
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. Editor’s Committee of Yearbook on Chinese Water Conservancy, Yearbook of Chinese Water Conservancy (Water conservancy and Power Press, 1992).
6. Jin Jianming, et al. (eds.), Green Crisis (China Environmental Sciences Press, 1994).
7. Editor’s Committee of Yearbook on Chinese Water Conservancy.
8. Compilatory Board of Essentials of China Natural Conservation, Collected Works on China Natural Conservation (China Environmental Sciences Press, 1990).
9. Yang Rizhen, “Farmland Soil Erosion and its Remedy Measures,” Bulletin of Water and Soil Conservation (Vol. 14, No. 2, 1994).
10. China Association of Science and Technology (eds.), Study on Prevention and Cure of Land Degradation in China (Chinese Science and Technology Publishing House, 1990). Also see, Huang Zhiliang, et al., Natural Conservation and Mapping in China (Science Press, 1992), Tang Yunti, et al., Introduction to Environment-Management (China Environmental Sciences Press, 1992), Qu Geping, et al.,. China’s Population and Environment, Compilatory Board of Essentials of China Natural Conservation, Collected Works on China Natural Conservation, and, Yang Rizhen, “Farmland Soil Erosion and its Remedy Measures.”
11. Mao Wenyong, et al. (eds.), Global Environmental Issues and Countermeasures (Chinese Science and Technology Publishing House, 1993).
12. Qu Geping, et al., China’s Population and Environment.
13. Jin Jianming, et al. (eds.), Green Crisis.
14. Mao Wenyong, et al. (eds.), Global Environmental Issues and Countermeasures.
15. Compilatory Board of Essentials of China Natural Conservation, Collected Works on China Natural Conservation.
16. Mao Wenyong, et al. (eds.), Global Environmental Issues and Countermeasures.
17. S. Ellis, A Mellor, Soils and Environment (London: Routledge, 1995), pp. 87, 320. Gleyzation is defined as “a soil formed under poorly drained conditions, characterized by the reduction of iron to its ferrous state.”
18. Huang Zhiliang, et al., Natural Conservation and Mapping in China.
19. Mao Wenyong, et al. (eds.), Global Environmental Issues and Countermeasures.
20. Qu Geping, et al., China’s Population and Environment.
21. Wang Xianjin, China Land.
22. Ibid.
23. Zhang Huiqin, et al., A system Analysis of Environmental Economy: Planning Methods and Models (Qinghua University Press, 1993).
24. Yearbook of China Rural Statistics.
25. Mao Wenyong et al. (eds.), Datum Handbook in Common Use for Resource and Environment (Chinese Science and Technology Publishing House, 1992).
26. Mao Wenyong, et al. (eds.), Global Environmental Issues and Countermeasures.
27. Zhang Huiqin, et al., A system Analysis of Environmental Economy: Planning Methods and Models.
28. Mao Wenyong et al. (eds.), Datum Handbook in Common Use for Resource and Environment.
29. Li Keguo, Environmental Economics (Science, Technology and Literature Press, 1993).
30. Zhang Huiqin, et al., A system Analysis of Environmental Economy: Planning Methods and Models.
31. Ibid.
32. Mao Wenyong et al. (eds.), Datum Handbook in Common Use for Resource and Environment.