conflict
Who’s the chicken in Trump’s high-stakes game?
U.S. President Donald Trump loves to play chicken – the game of chicken, that is. And while his predilection toward the game is bad enough, it also turns out that he plays it badly, and that’s truly scary.
Crisis analysis: How much damage can Trump do? (A lot)
This structured analysis of crisis risks arising from the Trump presidency was published in 2017, but it remains relevant to a potential second Trump presidency in 2025.
Catastrophic Dehumanization: the Psychological Dynamics of Severe Conflict
Dehumanization is arguably a defining feature of the most brutal acts of human violence, such as saturation bombardment of civilian populations, terrorist attacks on urban centers, intense battlefield combat, and genocide.
Climate Change, The Arctic and Canada: Avoiding Yesterday’s Analysis of Tomorrow’s Crisis
Paper Prepared for the 20th Anniversary Conference of the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy, Ottawa, Ontario
Cause and Effect
Thomas Homer-Dixon writes here on causality in complex systems, in response to Alex de Waal’s earlier post Is Climate Change the Culprit for Darfur? and to Declan Butler’s June 28th Nature article Darfur’s climate roots challenged.
Terror in the Weather Forecast
DOES climate change threaten international peace and security? The British government thinks it does. As this month’s head of the United Nations Security Council, Britain convened a debate on the matter last Tuesday. One in four United Nations member countries joined the discussion — a record for this kind of thematic debate.
Pull Up Terrorism by the Roots
Are there deep economic, social, political, or psychological causes of terrorism — things such as economic inequality, militant religious fundamentalism, or feelings of alienation and humiliation — and, if so, should we discuss them, analyze them, and then try to address them through our domestic and foreign policies?
Brittle Cities Are Easily Broken
Response to comment: “If there’s another major attack, people will leave the city in droves.”
War: Which Way to Turn
Should we go to war with Iraq? If you’re perplexed and confused by the issue, you’re not alone. In recent months, I’ve found my own opinion shifting from one side to the other, a picture of indecisiveness. Only recently have I made up my mind.
The Rise of Complex Terrorism
Modern societies face a cruel paradox: Fast-paced technological and economic innovations may deliver unrivalled prosperity, but they also render rich nations vulnerable to crippling, unanticipated attacks. By relying on intricate networks and concentrating vital assets in small geographic clusters, advanced Western nations only amplify the destructive power of terrorists and the psychological and financial damage they can inflict.
Why Root Causes Are Important
The debate surrounding the events of September 11 is being clouded by sloppy logic and analysis in the haste to say something — anything — that makes sense of the situation. One issue that has become clouded is whether it’s reasonable to talk about terrorism’s “root causes.”
