Impact 2024: How Donald Trump’s Reelection Could Amplify Global Inter-systemic Risk

The November 2024 federal election in the United States could mark an abrupt inflection point not only in the evolution of the American polity but also in the direction of global society. In this report, the Cascade Institute’s Polycrisis research team examines whether and how the election’s outcome could place the world on a far more perilous course.

The report’s analysis indicates that, compared to a Harris administration, a second Trump administration is much more likely to ignite a trade war with China that slows global economic growth; empower authoritarianism domestically and abroad; weaken multilateral institutions that provide vital global public goods; diminish the international security presence of the US, perhaps stimulating regional arms races; and increase uncertainty about how the US responds to crisis.

These outcomes will further disrupt global systems that are already fragile and vulnerable. The result is likely to be a more fragmented, competitive international order, and ultimately, in the worst case, great-power war and a far more severe global polycrisis. But, the report concludes, whether the risk of these worst outcomes is low or high depends crucially on how other actors around the world—nations, firms, multilateral institutions, nongovernmental organizations, transnational groups, and civil societies—respond to Mr. Trump’s actions. The worst is far from inevitable.