I am a professor and author. I use complexity science to examine threats to global security—especially economic instability, environmental stress, ideological polarization, and mass violence—and how people, organizations, and societies can respond to these threats.
I am a professor and author. I use complexity science to examine threats to global security—especially economic instability, environmental stress, ideological polarization, and mass violence—and how people, organizations, and societies can respond to these threats.
WHAT’S NEW
Pandemic Log
A running commentary on the unfolding pandemic
Trump’s path to a dictatorship: predicted in October 2016
with Jack Goldstone | Domestic disorder could become severe and widespread enough to allow Mr. Trump to claim authority under either the National Emergencies Act or the Insurrection Act to issue executive orders to deploy troops, federalize the National Guard or suspend basic rights.
Coronavirus will change the world. It might also lead to a better future
What’s happening in response to the worldwide spread of the SARS CoV-2 virus (and COVID-19, the disease it causes) is a vivid example of a global 'tipping event,' in which multiple social systems flip simultaneously to a distinctly new state.
Crisis analysis: How much damage can Trump do? (A lot)
Trump’s performance so far suggests his administration will lurch from crisis to crisis. To make some sense of these outcomes, I’ve charted the most likely crisis types and their causes.
Alberta’s economic future in peril without shift away from fossil fuel
by Gordon Kent | Alberta needs to start shifting quickly out of the oilsands to avoid serious economic trouble as the world moves away from fossil fuels, a University of Waterloo professor says.
The great Canadian climate delusion
with Yonatan Strauch | Is Canada going to be the first country to break apart over the issue of climate change? That may seem like a hyperbolic question. But the fissures in our federation over climate and energy policy are now extraordinarily deep, and there’s little sign that they’ll close soon.
WHAT’S NEW
Pandemic Log
A running commentary on the unfolding pandemic
Trump’s path to a dictatorship: predicted in October 2016
with Jack Goldstone | Domestic disorder could become severe and widespread enough to allow Mr. Trump to claim authority under either the National Emergencies Act or the Insurrection Act to issue executive orders to deploy troops, federalize the National Guard or suspend basic rights.
Coronavirus will change the world. It might also lead to a better future
What’s happening in response to the worldwide spread of the SARS CoV-2 virus (and COVID-19, the disease it causes) is a vivid example of a global 'tipping event,' in which multiple social systems flip simultaneously to a distinctly new state.
RESEARCH
Synchronous Failure: The Emerging Causal Architecture of Global Crisis
by Thomas Homer-Dixon et al. | Recent global crises reveal an emerging pattern of causation that could increasingly characterize the birth and progress of future global crises. A conceptual framework identifies this pattern’s deep causes, intermediate processes, and ultimate outcomes.
The Conceptual Structure of Social Disputes: Cognitive-Affective Maps as a Tool for Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Thomas Homer-Dixon et al. | We describe and illustrate a new method of graphically diagramming disputants’ points of view called cognitive-affective mapping. The products of this method—cognitive-affective maps (CAMs)—represent an individual’s concepts and beliefs about a particular subject, such as another individual or group or an issue in dispute.
A Complex Systems Approach to the Study of Ideology: Cognitive-affective Structures and the Dynamics of Belief Change
Thomas Homer-Dixon et al. | We propose a complex systems approach to the study of political belief systems, to overcome some of the fragmentation in the current scholarship on ideology.
