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I am a professor and author. I use complexity science to examine threats to global security—especially economic instability, environmental stress, ideological polarization, and mass violence—and how people, organizations, and societies can respond to these threats.

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Trump needs a war

June 28th, 2017|Tags: |

Donald Trump needs a war. He needs a war to fire Robert Mueller. Special counsel Mueller oversees an aggressively expanding investigation of Russia’s efforts to influence the 2016 presidential election...

President Trump Will Make Chaos the New Normal

November 24th, 2016|Tags: |

During the election campaign, Donald Trump made the normalization of abnormality a signature political tactic. The more he violated the conventions of U.S. political life, democratic practice and civil discourse, the more he excited his followers.

How Donald Trump Would Reshape America

October 17th, 2016|Tags: |

with Jack Goldstone | As the great nuclear strategist Herman Kahn once said, to survive we must sometimes think the unthinkable. Never has this advice been more apt, because from the moment Donald Trump announced his run for president of the United States he has been transforming the unthinkable into the thinkable.

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B.C.’s green shift is a window to the world

August 12th, 2017|Tags: |

In May's provincial election, the Green Party won its first multiple-seat breakthrough in North America, and by a fluke of electoral arithmetic, it now holds the balance of power in the legislature. Today, B.C.'s citizens are exploring uncharted political territory of potentially huge significance to people outside the province.

BOOKS

New Book 2018

Hope under Threat

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RESEARCH

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Synchronous Failure: The Emerging Causal Architecture of Global Crisis

August 28th, 2015|

by Thomas Homer-Dixon et al. | Recent global crises reveal an emerging pattern of causation that could increasingly characterize the birth and progress of future global crises. A conceptual framework identifies this pattern’s deep causes, intermediate processes, and ultimate outcomes.

The Conceptual Structure of Social Disputes: Cognitive-Affective Maps as a Tool for Conflict Analysis and Resolution

August 6th, 2014|

Thomas Homer-Dixon et al. | We describe and illustrate a new method of graphically diagramming disputants’ points of view called cognitive-affective mapping. The products of this method—cognitive-affective maps (CAMs)—represent an individual’s concepts and beliefs about a particular subject, such as another individual or group or an issue in dispute.