Resources

Impact 2024: How Donald Trump’s Reelection Could Amplify Global Inter-systemic Risk

October 4, 2024
Thomas Homer-Dixon, Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, Luke Kemp

The report precisely assesses how a second Trump administration could supercharge global economic, geopolitical, environmental, and pandemic risks and how those risks could then combine to escalate the world’s already severe polycrisis.

States of Emergency

States of Emergency

December 31, 2021

By 2025, American democracy could collapse, causing extreme domestic political instability, including widespread civil violence. By 2030, if not sooner, the country could be governed by a right-wing dictatorship. How should Canada prepare?

A mob egged on by U.S. President Donald Trump clashes with police at the west entrance of the Capitol in Washington on Jan. 6.

How the United States survived an assault on its democracy – at least for now

January 15, 2021
John Ibbitson and Thomas Homer-Dixon

The insurrection at the U.S. Capitol failed to make an autocrat out of Donald Trump, thanks in part to the public shields erected against his dangerous campaign of baseless election-fraud claims.

B.C.’s green shift is a window to the world

August 12, 2017

In May’s provincial election, the Green Party won its first multiple-seat breakthrough in North America, and by a fluke of electoral arithmetic, it now holds the balance of power in the legislature. Today, B.C.’s citizens are exploring uncharted political territory of potentially huge significance to people outside the province.

Trump needs a war

June 28, 2017

Donald Trump needs a war. He needs a war to fire Robert Mueller. Special counsel Mueller oversees an aggressively expanding investigation of Russia’s efforts to influence the 2016 presidential election…

Who’s the chicken in Trump’s high-stakes game?

April 28, 2017

U.S. President Donald Trump loves to play chicken – the game of chicken, that is. And while his predilection toward the game is bad enough, it also turns out that he plays it badly, and that’s truly scary.

Crisis analysis: How much damage can Trump do? (A lot)

March 19, 2017

This structured analysis of crisis risks arising from the Trump presidency was published in 2017, but it remains relevant to a potential second Trump presidency in 2025.

President Trump Will Make Chaos the New Normal

November 24, 2016

During the election campaign, Donald Trump made the normalization of abnormality a signature political tactic. The more he violated the conventions of U.S. political life, democratic practice and civil discourse, the more he excited his followers.

Trump’s path to a dictatorship: predicted in October 2016

October 17, 2016
Jack Goldstone and Thomas Homer-Dixon

with Jack Goldstone | Domestic disorder could become severe and widespread enough to allow Mr. Trump to claim authority under either the National Emergencies Act or the Insurrection Act to issue executive orders to deploy troops, federalize the National Guard or suspend basic rights.

Harper’s Biggest Election Blunder

October 16, 2015

By pressing the niqab issue, the Conservatives made an enormous strategic mistake. In fact, it was probably the single biggest blunder by any political party in this extraordinary election season.

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