If you want peace, prepare for war – an ancient lesson Canada must remember
March 21, 2025
Thomas Homer-Dixon warns Canadians to prepare for the possibility that Mr. Trump may make demands for territory, backed by the threat of military force.
Resources
Trump redux: Why the returning president is likely to become one of history’s most consequential figures
January 17, 2025
Thomas Homer-Dixon warns that as “reconfigurer-in-chief,” Donald Trump will be, in philosopher Georg Hegel’s terms, a world-historical figure.
Impact 2024: How Donald Trump’s Reelection Could Amplify Global Inter-systemic Risk
October 4, 2024
Thomas Homer-Dixon, Michael Lawrence, Megan Shipman, Luke Kemp
The report precisely assesses how a second Trump administration could supercharge global economic, geopolitical, environmental, and pandemic risks and how those risks could then combine to escalate the world’s already severe polycrisis.
States of Emergency
December 31, 2021
By 2025, American democracy could collapse, causing extreme domestic political instability, including widespread civil violence. By 2030, if not sooner, the country could be governed by a right-wing dictatorship. How should Canada prepare?
How the United States survived an assault on its democracy – at least for now
January 15, 2021
John Ibbitson and Thomas Homer-Dixon
The insurrection at the U.S. Capitol failed to make an autocrat out of Donald Trump, thanks in part to the public shields erected against his dangerous campaign of baseless election-fraud claims.
B.C.’s green shift is a window to the world
August 12, 2017
In May’s provincial election, the Green Party won its first multiple-seat breakthrough in North America, and by a fluke of electoral arithmetic, it now holds the balance of power in the legislature. Today, B.C.’s citizens are exploring uncharted political territory of potentially huge significance to people outside the province.
Trump needs a war
June 28, 2017
Donald Trump needs a war. He needs a war to fire Robert Mueller. Special counsel Mueller oversees an aggressively expanding investigation of Russia’s efforts to influence the 2016 presidential election…
Who’s the chicken in Trump’s high-stakes game?
April 28, 2017
U.S. President Donald Trump loves to play chicken – the game of chicken, that is. And while his predilection toward the game is bad enough, it also turns out that he plays it badly, and that’s truly scary.
Crisis analysis: How much damage can Trump do? (A lot)
March 19, 2017
This structured analysis of crisis risks arising from the Trump presidency was published in 2017, but it remains relevant to a potential second Trump presidency in 2025.
President Trump Will Make Chaos the New Normal
November 24, 2016
During the election campaign, Donald Trump made the normalization of abnormality a signature political tactic. The more he violated the conventions of U.S. political life, democratic practice and civil discourse, the more he excited his followers.