Paper Prepared for the 20th Anniversary Conference of the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy, Ottawa, Ontario
Thomas Homer-Dixon writes here on causality in complex systems, in response to Alex de Waal’s earlier post Is Climate Change the Culprit for Darfur? and to Declan Butler’s June 28th Nature article Darfur’s climate roots challenged.
DOES climate change threaten international peace and security? The British government thinks it does. As this month’s head of the United Nations Security Council, Britain convened a debate on the matter last Tuesday. One in four United Nations member countries joined the discussion — a record for this kind of thematic debate.
At a meeting in Stockholm this past August, Ismail Serageldin, the World Bank’s Vice President for Environmentally Sustainable Development, released a new report on global water issues.
What is the human prospect? Will our future be marked by rising prosperity, health and happiness for all? Or will population growth, environmental crisis and ethno-nationalism drive large parts of the world into violence and anarchy?
As the Clinton administration develops foreign and defense policies for a quickly changing world, it should consider the long-term links between the planet’s ecological balance and mass violence.