Research Papers

The Great Transformation: Climate Change as Cultural Change

June 8, 2009

A critical conversation about climate change is going on right now through the UNFCCC process; a key stage in this process will be the Copenhagen meeting at the end of this year. This conversation, to the extent that it is prescriptive, generally emphasizes technology and economics. It stresses strategies for dealing with the climate problem that involve technical aspects of, for instance, societies’ energy mix and energy efficiency. I don’t want to disparage these approaches or suggest that they shouldn’t be pursued. But, the fact remains that despite all our efforts we seem to be falling further and further behind.

The Newest Science: Replacing Physics, Ecology Will Be the Master Science of the 21st Century

June 1, 2009

Physics was the master science of the 20th century. Ecology will be the master science of the 21st century.

Review of Vaclav Smil, Global Catastrophes and Trends and Chris Patten, What Next?

March 19, 2009

These are bewildering times. One moment the global economy is booming and stock markets are soaring; the next, trillions of dollars of wealth have vanished, and we are on the cusp of a global depression. Oil prices rocket upwards as leading oilmen talk of worldwide shortages, then they plummet amid a worldwide glut.

Review of Helge Brunborg, Eq Tabeau and Henrik Urdal (Eds.), The Demography of Armed Conflict

June 1, 2008

Can rapid population growth help cause civil violence, such as insurgency or revolution? How does war affect the population structure of societies? Is the science of demography a useful forensic tool in determining mortality arising from war crimes? This edited volume addresses such questions.

Conflict in a Nonlinear World: Complex Adaptation at the Intersection of Energy, Climate, and Security

April 25, 2007

“More and more often, solutions to complex human conflict require complex solutions—solutions involving diverse organizations such as police forces, first responders, other government departments, non-government organizations (NGO/charities) and militaries. As a result, the politics of these operations can be Byzantine, the logistics overwhelming, and the moral and ethical considerations dizzying in their implications.”

Beyond Management: How and Why Kymlicka Is Wrong

December 12, 2006

Response to book review “Panarchy and Dystopia.” Toronto Globe and Mail, November 11. 2006, by Will Kymlicka.

Review of Colin Kahl, States, Scarcity, and Civil Strife in the Developing World

September 1, 2006

What is the relationship between environmental stress—especially shortages and degradation of cropland, forest stocks, and supplies of fresh water—and civil violence in developing countries, including insurgency, ethnic strife, and revolution?

The Rich Get Richer, The Poor Get Squat

July 30, 2005

Review of Branko Milanovic’s”Worlds Apart: Measuring International and Global Inequality (Princeton: 2005)”

Blink. Snap. Buzz.

January 8, 2005

Malcolm Gladwell has a good eye for a great story. And in Blink he tells one great story after another to illustrate the power of snap judgments—those virtually instantaneous and occasionally life-changing decisions guided by intuition, instinct, or “gut” feeling that we all make in life, love, and war.

Out of the Energy Box

November 1, 2004

Thomas Homer-Dixon and S. Julio Friedmann

with S. Julio Friedmann | The prognosis for the future of climate change is indeed alarming. Scientists say plausible scenarios include terrible droughts, crop failures, and dying forests around the Mediterranean and in the United States, South America, India, China, and Africa. Sea levels are expected to rise significantly, drowning islands and possibly displacing hundreds of millions of people from coastlines, where more than a third of the world’s population lives. Ground water supplies are set to shrink, reservoirs to dry up. Wildfires and violent storms will strike more often and much harder. And much of this change is expected within the next 50 years.