Philip Howard and Thomas Homer-Dixon | This paper identifies the different forms of environmental scarcities that affect the people of Chiapas, Mexico. In recent years, these scarcities have become acute.
Summary Many social, economic, and political problems have accompanied urban growth in the developing world. Will further growth result in
Within the next fifty years, the planet’s human population will probably pass nine billion, and global economic output may quintuple. Largely as a result, scarcities of renewable resources will increase sharply. The total area of high-quality agricultural land will drop, as will the extent of forests and the number of species they sustain.
What is the human prospect? Will our future be marked by rising prosperity, health and happiness for all? Or will population growth, environmental crisis and ethno-nationalism drive large parts of the world into violence and anarchy?
Growing scarcities of renewable resources can contribute to social instability and civil strife.
As the Clinton administration develops foreign and defense policies for a quickly changing world, it should consider the long-term links between the planet’s ecological balance and mass violence.
A number of scholars have recently asserted that large-scale human-induced environmental pressures may seriously affect national and international security. Unfortunately, the environment-security theme encompasses an almost unmanageable array of sub-issues, especially if we define “security” broadly to include human physical, social, and economic well-being.
