ACADEMIC
Strategies for Studying Causation in Complex Ecological-Political Systems
This paper shows that some commonly advocated methodological principles of modern political science are inappropriate for the study of complex ecological-political systems. It also provides conceptual tools for thinking about the causal roles of environmental and demographic factors, and it discusses various strategies for hypothesis and inference testing.
The Ingenuity Gap: Can Poor Countries Adapt to Resource Scarcity?
As human population and material consumption increase in coming decades, scarcities of natural resources will increase in some regions. Will societies be able to adapt?
Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of Gaza
Kimberley Kelly and Thomas Homer-Dixon | The achievement of limited autonomy for Palestinians in Gaza and Jericho in 1993 engendered hope for peace in the Middle East, yet violence persists. The links between environmental scarcity and conflict are complex, but in Gaza, water scarcity has clearly aggravated socioeconomic conditions.
Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of Chiapas, Mexico
Philip Howard and Thomas Homer-Dixon | This paper identifies the different forms of environmental scarcities that affect the people of Chiapas, Mexico. In recent years, these scarcities have become acute.
Urban Growth and Violence: Will the Future Resemble the Past?
Peter Gizewski and Thomas Homer-Dixon | Many social, economic, and political problems have accompanied urban growth in the developing world. Will further growth result in violent behavior as expectations of economic improvement and social mobility are dashed?
Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases
Within the next fifty years, the planet’s human population will probably pass nine billion, and global economic output may quintuple. Largely as a result, scarcities of renewable resources will increase sharply. The total area of high-quality agricultural land will drop, as will the extent of forests and the number of species they sustain.
