GENERAL
conflict
What Happens When a Cascade of Crises Collide?
with Johan Rockström | Humanity faces a complex knot of seemingly distinct but entangled crises that are causing damage greater than the sum of their individual harms.
Putin isn’t bluffing about using nuclear weapons in Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin is forcing the West to play a dangerous game of chicken, and he’s about to throw his steering wheel out the window.
Two things the West must do to lower the probability that Putin will pull the nuclear trigger
This time, 'Mutual Assured Destruction' might not work. The Russian leader has already shown extreme irrationality in his calamitous choice to start this war.
States of Emergency
By 2025, American democracy could collapse, causing extreme domestic political instability, including widespread civil violence. By 2030, if not sooner, the country could be governed by a right-wing dictatorship. How should Canada prepare?
Climate Change and Violent Conflict: Reflections after 30 years
Presentation to a conference on Climate Change & (In)Security: Trends, Lessons, Challenges. University of Oxford; CHACR, UK Army
Trump needs a war
Donald Trump needs a war. He needs a war to fire Robert Mueller. Special counsel Mueller oversees an aggressively expanding investigation of Russia’s efforts to influence the 2016 presidential election...
Who’s the chicken in Trump’s high-stakes game?
U.S. President Donald Trump loves to play chicken – the game of chicken, that is. And while his predilection toward the game is bad enough, it also turns out that he plays it badly, and that’s truly scary.
Crisis analysis: How much damage can Trump do? (A lot)
This structured analysis of crisis risks arising from the Trump presidency was published in 2017, but it remains relevant to a potential second Trump presidency in 2025.
What is really at stake in extremist attacks
We’ve been lucky so far, because the bad guys have usually been stupid. But they probably won’t be stupid forever, so our luck probably won’t last. When it finally runs out, we need to make sure we don’t do the bad guys’ work for them.
Ebola Epidemic Could Tear Societies Apart
World leaders finally seem to be waking up to the gravity of the Ebola threat. Like the rest of us, they’ve been distracted by the Islamic State’s rampage in Syria and Iraq, the Ukrainian crisis, and even the mini-drama of the Scottish independence referendum.
What’s Behind These Fracturing Countries? Stalled Economies
Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine and Venezuela. At first glance, it would seem hard to find four more different countries. But if you’ve followed international events over the last year, you’ve probably noticed that these countries share a striking similarity.
War: Which Way to Turn
Should we go to war with Iraq? If you’re perplexed and confused by the issue, you’re not alone. In recent months, I’ve found my own opinion shifting from one side to the other, a picture of indecisiveness. Only recently have I made up my mind.
The Virulence of Violence: Small Arms, Many Wars, Large Threat
The proliferation of light weapons is seriously impeding political and economic reforms in developing countries from Congo to Colombia, the author argues, and the resulting downward spiral could threaten U.S. national security.