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Review of Colin Kahl, States, Scarcity, and Civil Strife in the Developing World
What is the relationship between environmental stress—especially shortages and degradation of cropland, forest stocks, and supplies of fresh water—and civil violence in developing countries, including insurgency, ethnic strife, and revolution?
Crisis analysis: How much damage can Trump do? (A lot)
This structured analysis of crisis risks arising from the Trump presidency was published in 2017, but it remains relevant to a potential second Trump presidency in 2025.
Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of Rwanda
Valerie Percival and Thomas Homer-Dixon | On April 6, 1994, President Juvenal Habyarimana’s plane exploded in the skies above the Kigali region of Rwanda. Violence gripped the country. Between April and August of 1994, as many as 1 million people were killed and more than 2 million people became refugees.
President Trump Will Make Chaos the New Normal
During the election campaign, Donald Trump made the normalization of abnormality a signature political tactic. The more he violated the conventions of U.S. political life, democratic practice and civil discourse, the more he excited his followers.
The Roubini Cascade: Are we heading for a Greater Depression?
with Michael Lawrence | This research involves a system map of Nouriel Roubini’s argument that the world is heading into a Greater Depression.
The Newest Science: Replacing Physics, Ecology Will Be the Master Science of the 21st Century
Physics was the master science of the 20th century. Ecology will be the master science of the 21st century.
Leadership, Politics, and Democracy
GENERAL leadership, politics & democracy GENERAL Alberta Beliefs and Ideology China Climate Change Complexity Conflict Economics Education Energy Environmental Stress and Conflict Ingenuity Gap Leadership, Politics and Democracy Population Psychology Science Policy Societal Collapse System Resilience Terrorism Trump [...]
Getting to Enough: How we’ll solve the dilemma that’s destroying our world
Avoiding Mad Max and finding a path to a positive future
Strategies for Studying Causation in Complex Ecological-Political Systems
This paper shows that some commonly advocated methodological principles of modern political science are inappropriate for the study of complex ecological-political systems. It also provides conceptual tools for thinking about the causal roles of environmental and demographic factors, and it discusses various strategies for hypothesis and inference testing.
